Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-02 0.251095 0.282880 0.317303 0.357380 0.402793 0.452698 0.511752
2025-11-09 0.191821 0.231494 0.277622 0.335321 0.405710 0.488979 0.595245
2025-11-16 0.154861 0.198659 0.252909 0.325273 0.419628 0.538974 0.702163
2025-11-23 0.126786 0.171909 0.231108 0.314860 0.430964 0.587200 0.815022
2025-11-30 0.110346 0.157513 0.222794 0.320382 0.463689 0.668160 0.985135
2025-12-07 0.092200 0.137860 0.204193 0.308447 0.469821 0.712788 1.111350
2025-12-14 0.079285 0.123769 0.191368 0.302709 0.483787 0.770604 1.267016
2025-12-21 0.068818 0.111799 0.179902 0.297077 0.496669 0.828240 1.431931
2025-12-28 0.062644 0.105709 0.176720 0.304121 0.531010 0.925687 1.680505
2026-01-04 0.055743 0.097400 0.168658 0.301539 0.548158 0.995930 1.892598
2026-01-11 0.050606 0.091403 0.163671 0.303507 0.573513 1.084385 2.153937
2026-01-18 0.046949 0.087539 0.161893 0.310985 0.610108 1.199198 2.487192
2026-01-25 0.041253 0.079292 0.151254 0.300581 0.611456 1.247893 2.699357
2026-02-01 0.035847 0.070904 0.139264 0.285790 0.601722 1.272823 2.866298
2026-02-08 0.032109 0.065327 0.132070 0.279799 0.609613 1.336440 3.133260
2026-02-15 0.028742 0.060066 0.124827 0.272636 0.613838 1.392827 3.395072
2026-02-22 0.026941 0.057860 0.123665 0.278639 0.648824 1.525240 3.870185
2026-03-01 0.024088 0.053009 0.116178 0.269186 0.646085 1.568105 4.126388
2026-03-08 0.021955 0.049485 0.111176 0.264808 0.654946 1.640910 4.477552
2026-03-15 0.020055 0.046254 0.106423 0.260328 0.662834 1.712624 4.841202
2026-03-22 0.019058 0.045001 0.106105 0.266763 0.699880 1.866941 5.474550
2026-03-29 0.017643 0.042572 0.102664 0.264725 0.714056 1.961950 5.952904
2026-04-05 0.016580 0.040877 0.100812 0.266594 0.739322 2.092573 6.571118